Inputting Your Assessments

The first step in using every decision-tree model is to answer two sets of "general information" questions. The Models refer to these questions as "parameters."

The initial set of parameters will vary depending on your specific answers to the previous three "tree-selector" questions. When necessary, you will be asked to input information about how your jurisdiction handles joint and several liability, about the ability of any non-settling codefendants to pay a judgment, and about the amount of settlements from codefendants or agents and how your jurisdiction handles them.  Only the "Amount of Settlements from Codefendants" applies in Baby Sam v. True North Hospital, and we will input $1M.

The next set of parameters allows you to input information about pre-judgment interest and present-value discounting. In  Baby Sam v. True North Hospital, we will assume neither is applicable.

The second step is to compile — for each liability and damage issue in your tree — a "list of reasons" why the trier could find either for you or against you. The Models have a special window for each issue where you can input your evidence, arguments, and other influencing factors. Below is the "list of reasons" for the trier finding/not finding that Nurse Drew, and thus True North Hospital, is liable for breaching the standard of care.

The third step is to assess the probability of prevailing on each liability uncertainty. The Models come with an important visual aid to assist you in this. It is called a Probability Wheel (shown below). Academic studies and decades of experience have both demonstrated that using the wheel is the best way to quantify one’s subjective opinion about uncertainty. Simply adjust the relative proportions of the two colors until they correspond to what you feel is the relative weight of the factors on each side of your "list of reasons." The software will then automatically translate this into a numerical percentage on the decision tree.

Now we can solve this decision tree and see the results of our Litigation Risk Analysis™.   But first, look back at what you wrote down as your "gut feel" settlement value.  Then,

        click here for the results.